How do "engineering leaders" work with large-scale "trends"?

Question

How do "engineering leaders" work with large-scale "trends"?

Like matching against predicted requirements in renewable energy etc.

These seem like abstractly unknowable future states. Yet, "engineering leaders" seem to be able to ride the trends and collect the requirements needed to work on these trends.

Also, nowadays the projects are quite large-scale already, because they may touch even millions of people, or take tens of years to fully implement. It seems like black magic, because humans and human organizations have a lot of variables. One cannot e.g. control the supply of labour market.

So how do they progress in such?

Answer 1

The strategic planning of long term projects isn't solely an engineering problem but also involves business, financial and political planning.

To take the example of renewable energy and to generalise somewhat.

First the technology needs to be developed and proven. This is usually an iterative process, initially on a relatively small scale. You first have prototypes then pilot schemes then full commercial roll-out Infrastructure technology often involves a degree of collaboration between business, technology and government.

For example government may stimulate demand by offering grants, tax breaks etc or by legislating to reduce the attractiveness of alternatives. For example if renewable energy is taxed at a lower rate than coal power, then that makes renewable a more attractive investment proposition.

Any new technology is a business risk and investors will calculate whether the potential return on investment justifies that risk. This calculation will involve both engineering feasibility studies and economic modelling to try to predict future economic conditions.

Equally while you can't completely control future markets you can trade in them, energy wholesale contracts may be agreed decades in advance and often energy infrastructure projects will include complex contracts which set pricing structures.

Answer 2

They don't.

What you call a trend, has usually been around for ages. Engineering on a large commercial scale does not really start until the fundamentals are known. This means that there has already been quite a lot of basic research going on, for years sometimes decades.

If nothing else, then the limitations and pitfalls of current tech is well known. Through mathematical modeling they can say what the limits of different technological methods are even before they overtake the competition. Therefore people in the R&D departments know what to look for, and revisit what is available from time to time. This is why photographing inside factories is a no-no as a person in the know can near instantaneously be able to spot the solution.

Big companies however, deliberately create demand. They don't just passively make things happen.